Dave Cantin Group Releases 2026 Automotive Market Outlook Report Ahead of NADA
Report Outlines Six Forces Reshaping Auto Retail In 2026: Affordability, China’s U.S. Retreat & Global Rise, Regional Dealer Consolidation, Evolving Electrification Landscape, Policy Uncertainty and Data Use
LAS VEGAS, Feb. 02, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Dave Cantin Group (DCG), a leading automotive mergers and acquisitions advisory company, released its 2026 Automotive Market Outlook Report today as the North American Dealer Association (NADA) annual conference kicks off in Las Vegas. Produced in collaboration with The Martec Group, the bi-annual report combines DCG’s market insights with new consumer and dealer research to predict the themes that will most impact the retail automotive industry in 2026.
The report is grounded in national online surveys of 1,000 consumers and dealership decision-makers, supported by expert interviews and secondary research, to reflect the realities shaping auto retail in 2026.
“This is a year when the industry’s biggest shifts are happening in plain sight, in affordability, retail consolidation, China’s global expansion, the strategic application of data, policy uncertainty, and the evolving electrification landscape,” DCG President Brian Gordon said. “Dealers and other industry stakeholders that understand these forces early and adjust strategically will be the best positioned to compete.”
Six Themes Defining Auto Retail in 2026
1. Affordability Remains the Defining Consumer Story
For a second consecutive year, DCG expects price sensitivity to shape holistic consumer behavior throughout 2026, even as top-line economic indicators remain relatively healthy. The market is increasingly split between affluent buyers sustaining premium and luxury demand and Main Street households grappling with rising costs.
Main Street’s low- and middle-income consumers are borrowing more and stretching payments longer. The average U.S. monthly car payment is now roughly $750, with average loan terms around 70 months. About 22% of borrowers carry 84-month loans, underscoring how consumers are managing affordability constraints.
Meanwhile, consumer sentiment is weakening sharply. Updated consumer confidence data released Jan. 27 by the Conference Board showed confidence fell to its lowest level since 2014, and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index in January was more than 25% lower than a year ago, reflecting a growing strain on household budgets.
Dealers are responding by prioritizing sourcing older used inventory, strengthening fixed operations and investing in customer-service options like mobile service to maintain revenue streams and keep customers loyal between purchases.
DCG forecasts at least 75 basis points of rate cuts in 2026 but questions whether that will deliver much relief to low- and middle-income consumers.
2. China Retreats and Redirects; Its Brands Don’t Need the U.S. to Win Globally
While tariff and regulatory barriers have Chinese automakers retreating from their efforts to enter the U.S. market, DCG’s Market Outlook Report argues that China’s competitive impact is already global and growing rapidly.
China became the world’s largest exporter of vehicles in 2023 and Chinese brands are now gaining share across major markets. Chinese automakers more than doubled European market share from roughly 4% in 2021 to about 9% in 2025, with forecasts reaching 15% by 2030.
In 2025, BYD surpassed Tesla to become the world’s largest seller of electric vehicles, highlighting how quickly Chinese manufacturers are raising competitive pressure outside the United States.
In the near term, Chinese OEMs are expanding in markets such as Mexico and, as of this year, even Canada, where barriers are lower, and EV adoption is stronger.
DCG expects Chinese automakers to compete on U.S. soil in three to five years, with minimal impacts expected at least through 2027.
3. Consolidation Continues, Led by Large Regional Privates
While dealership buy-sell activity fell 35-40% year-over-year in 2025, DCG expects consolidation to accelerate in 2026, driven by regional powerhouses expanding and multi-generational family owners exiting.
Large regional dealer groups are acquiring rooftops to build local leverage and operational scale, while smaller private dealers, particularly those without clear successors, are increasingly open to exiting the business in a way that will preserve the teams, legacy and community presence they built.
Recent examples include Cincinnati, Ohio-based Jeff Wyler Automotive Family’s purchase of Midwestern Auto Group, a 14-brand luxury-heavy campus in Columbus, Ohio, now known as The Wyler Collection; Gee Auto’s recently announced intent to purchase Tuttle-Click Automotive Group; and ZT Automotive’s acquisition of four Maus Family Automotive dealerships in the Tampa Bay area, an addition that strengthened ZT’s presence across multiple states and exemplifies a targeted, region-focused expansion by a growing privately held dealership group.
4. EV Growth Slows but Electrification Is Here to Stay
EV adoption is growing more slowly than previously expected, with many automakers now targeting 10-15% EV share by 2030, down from earlier projections.
Still, DCG remains bullish long-term on electrification, particularly as lower-cost Chinese models reshape global pricing expectations and solid-state battery advances improve performance, charging speed and reliability.
Solid-state battery technology, in particular, could address some of the biggest barriers to EV adoption that consumers cite today. These batteries enable an 80% charge in 10 to 15 minutes, deliver 650+ miles of range, are reliable in any weather, and are less prone to catastrophic failure, overcoming the most significant challenges to EV adoption cited by consumers.
Long-term, dealers will need to understand the solid-state battery road map. Toyota, Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Volkswagen are among the early leaders, while Chinese OEMs are moving quickly toward commercial production beginning as soon as 2026.
Meanwhile, hybrids, plug-in hybrids and extended-range EVs are expected to increase share through 2030, serving as a bridge to full electrification as technology and policy evolve.
5. Policy and Regulation Continue to Drive Uncertainty
Trade policy, the end of federal EV incentives and shifting regulatory frameworks remain key sources of volatility for dealers and manufacturers in 2026.
DCG also notes that recent federal legislation, including provisions of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, is expected to benefit auto retailers by putting more money back into consumers’ hands through tax threshold adjustments, improving dealer investment flexibility through changes to business interest deductibility, and with a limited auto loan interest deduction for qualified buyers.
At the same time, political gridlock and heightened partisanship continue to fuel policy uncertainty. Rising risks of additional government shutdowns, with Congress facing another appropriations deadline at the end of this month, could weigh on economic confidence and disrupt consumer purchasing behavior. Dealers and manufacturers are also watching longer-term fiscal debates, including the likelihood of renewed debt ceiling pressure later in 2026.
Regardless, political gridlock, tariff uncertainty and uneven regulatory signals continue to weigh on consumer confidence and corporate planning.
6. Data Becomes a Differentiator in 2026
Across every theme, DCG notes that dealers with stronger data, sharper operational insights and more disciplined investment strategies will be best positioned to outperform the competition.
In 2026, the biggest competitive edge will come from how effectively dealers use data to manage pricing, inventory, customer retention, fixed operations performance and acquisition strategy.
“Dealers need data and artificial intelligence to begin tackling strategic challenges, not just tactical ones,” Gordon said. “The dealers who win will be the ones who implement software and data solutions that help them identify how to impact performance, assess competition, know their customers, all so they can adapt faster than the rest of the market.”
The full 2026 Automotive Market Outlook Report is available at:
https://www.davecantingroup.com/market-outlook-report/
About Dave Cantin Group
The Dave Cantin Group is a leading automotive M&A advisory company specializing in acquisitions, divestitures, intelligence and other advisory services. The company is the M&A services provider of choice for North America’s top automotive dealership groups, advising on approximately 40 transactions annually. DCG is differentiated by its advisory approach, long-term client relationships and commitment to market intelligence tools that inform client strategy.
Through its M&A intelligence division, DCG produces automotive insights and delivers timely market intelligence including the Market Outlook Report (MOR) and the Inside M&A studio show and podcast with CBT News. DCG’s proprietary AI-enabled platform Jump IQ anchors its advisory services to help retail automotive dealers make smarter data-driven M&A decisions.
The company’s nonprofit initiative DCG Giving funds child and adolescent cancer research and treatment across the United States and supports other charitable causes.
For more information, visit www.davecantingroup.com.
Media Contact:
Katie Merx
Dave Cantin Group
katiemerx@gmail.com
+1 313.510.5090
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